How Goats and Dogs Might Predict Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions

Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior (Germany) are registering thousands of farm animals — dogs, goats, and others — as well as numerous wild animals for a global study that tracks their movements from space. They hope the animals’ movements can help predict earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and other natural phenomena.

The team attaches tiny transmitters to mammals, birds, and insects, then tracks the animals’ movements with special satellites, The Guardian reports.

Why is this necessary?

According to researchers, the goal is not only to study animals’ reactions to impending natural events but also to gain new insights about animal migration, the spread of disease among them, and the impact of the climate crisis on these populations. Next year, the network of satellites monitoring animals will expand.

“We hope to launch a fleet of approximately six satellites and create a global observation network that will not only provide detailed information about the movements of wildlife and their health across the planet, but will also show how creatures react to natural phenomena such as earthquakes,” explained project leader Martin Wikelski, founder of the International Cooperation for Animal Research Using Space (Icarus). Scientists from around the world are involved in this scientific community.

The Icarus project became possible thanks to a revolution in tagging technology. Tiny digital transmitters powered by small lithium batteries and miniature GPS devices enabled the creation of a vast number of tags that weigh only a few grams.

Can goats predict earthquakes and dogs predict volcanic eruptions?

What did the first experiments show?

Initial experiments into animals’ predictive abilities have already taken place in Sicily — on the slopes of Mount Etna, Wikelski reported. According to him, the team found that goats’ behavior quite accurately indicates impending major volcanic eruptions.

Sensors recorded how the animals became anxious before an eruption and refused to move to higher pastures they usually visited. “They know in advance what is going to happen. It’s unknown how they do it,” Wikelski said.

Scientists also observed dogs, sheep, and other farm animals in the Abruzzo mountains outside of Rome. The team reported that goats predicted seven out of eight major earthquakes in the region over the past 12 years.

How can this be explained?

According to scientists, animals may respond to ions released by rocks during the lead-up to eruptions.

“During the build-up to an earthquake, tectonic plates slide past each other under immense pressure, causing ions from the rocks to be released into the air. Animals may react to this,” Wikelski said.

Understanding how animals respond to geological changes is just one area of interest for this program. As part of the research, scientists can also observe the health of wild animals from space.

Can goats predict earthquakes and dogs predict volcanic eruptions?

For example, researchers attached electronic tags equipped with tiny 30-gram accelerometers to the ears of wild boars. By observing changes in the boars’ behavior, the team realized the animals were developing African swine fever. This highly contagious virus is rapidly spreading among wild boars and domestic pigs. Therefore, recognizing an outbreak in the wild is crucial for containing its spread to farm animals.

The technology will also help scientists uncover the mechanisms that govern migrations. Researchers have placed sensors on small insects like the “death’s-head” hawkmoth. Soon, scientists will be able to reveal the mysteries underlying the annual migrations of these insects between Europe and Africa.

“In a similar way, we will be able to study how animal populations respond to environmental changes caused by” global warming, ” Wikelski noted.

Stories about animals behaving strangely before earthquakes or eruptions are not new. The Greek historian Thucydides claimed that rats, dogs, snakes, and weasels left the city of Helice just before the earthquake that occurred in 373 BC. And the earthquake in Haiqing County (China) occurred in 1975 after snakes and rats had left their burrows en masse.