The UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 says the global population will grow by more than two billion over the next decade, but that fast growth may stop by the mid-2080s.
What else should we expect?
In the 75 years since the 1950s, the Earth’s population has more than tripled, reaching an astonishing 8.2 billion people.
As of 2024, 63 countries — including China, Germany, and Japan — have already seen their populations peak. Another 126 countries are expected to follow in the second half of the century, the Daily Mail reports.
The UN now puts the chance of a peak by the end of the 21st century at about 80%. A few years ago, researchers were much more skeptical and estimated the probability at roughly 30%.
This isn’t the only forecast revised in the new report. Experts had earlier predicted that by 2100 the global population would be 700 million higher than the new estimate. That change is mainly due to falling birth rates worldwide, especially in China. Once the world’s most populous country, China is now projected to shrink from about 1.4 billion people to 633 million by 2100.
A similar trend is happening worldwide: fertility rates are dropping below the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman.
Changing birth patterns will also pose problems in wealthier countries, where lower birth rates and longer life expectancy are reshaping the population. New forecasts show that by 2080, the number of people aged 65 and older will exceed the number of children under 18. That shift could strain social support systems and the labor force.
In some regions, the UN predicts that immigration will become the primary source of population growth.
Rapid population growth in low-income countries will likely make it harder to eradicate poverty and hunger in places already facing severe economic and environmental challenges.
