A new study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington lays out a stark picture of falling global fertility. Fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime.
The researchers say that a fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman is needed to keep a population stable. Very few countries are likely to sustain that level. The team forecasts that the countries that will reach replacement-level fertility include Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Tajikistan, and Chad.
Meanwhile, population recovery rates in developed countries are expected to decline significantly. Aging populations will remain a dominant trend and will hurt the economies and social systems of those nations.
The study projects that by 2050, three-quarters of countries will face a sharp decline in birth rates. By 2100, this trend will affect 97 percent of countries, according to IFLScience.
The Threat of Global Declining Birth Rates
In just a few decades, the global demographic structure could look very different as birth rates keep falling. The sharp drop in newborns will produce “staggering social changes” across much of the world.
At the same time, the world is likely to become “demographically divided.” While birth rates are projected to plunge in most regions, many low-income countries will see fertility rise. This is particularly true for countries located south of the Sahara.
“The vast majority of the world will struggle with serious economic growth issues related to a shrinking workforce, as well as caring for an aging population,” said Professor Stein Emil Vollset, the lead author of the study.
He added, “The world will simultaneously grapple with a ‘baby boom’ in some countries and declining birth rates in others.” That gap, he said, will only be partially eased by thoughtful social policies.
“Social policies that include extended parental leave, paid childcare, financial incentives, and additional employment rights can lead to a slight increase in birth rates,” said Dr. Natalia V. Bhattacharji, a co-author of the study. However, in most countries birth rates will remain below replacement level. As populations shrink in nearly all nations, many will need to rely on open immigration to support economic growth.
The researchers blame much of the decline on two factors: wider access to modern contraceptives and more women pursuing education and careers. They emphasize that the expanding rights and opportunities for women worldwide should not be overlooked.
“There is a very real concern that in the context of declining populations, some countries may justify draconian measures that restrict reproductive rights,” warned Dr. Bhattacharji. The authors argue that countries that respect women’s rights are more likely to achieve better health and stronger economic growth. “Women need the support to have as many children as they choose while pursuing their careers,” the researchers emphasized.
The study’s findings were published in The Lancet.
