Gaby
What will life expectancy look like in a century, and is it worth chasing longevity when so many people live unhealthy lives? Demographers, gerontologists, geneticists, and sociologists are increasingly asking these questions about the aging of humanity.
Robin McKay, a science expert at the Observer, is sounding the alarm. The world’s population is aging under far-from-ideal conditions. He says the focus should be on increasing not just the number of years people live but the number of healthy years they have.
More and more people around the world are reaching old age. As McKay noted, in just ten years a quarter of the British population will be over 65. Over the past 180 years, life in England has changed dramatically: men and women there now live, on average, about twice as long as they did in 1841. Life expectancy rose from 40.2 to 78.6 years for men and from 42.3 to 82.6 years for women. Similar changes are occurring in many other parts of the world, according to The Guardian.
The increase in years lived can be traced to vaccinations, major improvements in sanitation, and many other factors. But how long will this trend of rising life expectancy continue?
How Long Will Earthlings Live in the Near Future
One forecast suggests that by 2050 the global population of centenarians will reach nearly four million people (compared with just 95,000 in 1990). Not long ago, some scientists even speculated that later this century a few people might reach 150 years of age.
However, researchers note that reaching that milestone won’t be easy. Life expectancy rose for most of the 20th century but then stalled. Drug and alcohol abuse, rising mortality from multiple causes, and an increase in chronic disease have taken their toll. In recent years the COVID-19 pandemic has been particularly damaging.
As a result, life expectancy in developed countries has begun to decline. In the U.S. it dropped by 1.5 years between 2019 and 2020, a decline not seen since World War II.
Researchers predict we are unlikely to see a rapid jump in longevity records anytime soon. In 2016 a team led by geneticist Jan Vijg at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine analyzed maximum recorded ages of death in France, Japan, the U.S., and the U.K., and concluded it’s unlikely people will reach 125 years in the coming decades.
The record holder in the database was Frenchwoman Jeanne Calment, who died in 1997 at the age of 122.
Long Life Shouldn’t Be a Burden
Experts increasingly argue that simply tracking life expectancy is losing its importance. The goal should be to increase not just lifespan but healthy lifespan.
Only when people are free from chronic disease and financial worries can a long life be lived without unnecessary suffering.
This view is shared by Professor Neil Mabbott at the University of Edinburgh. He says it’s especially important now to develop clinical and social measures that promote healthy aging.
Meanwhile Dr. Richard Siow, director of aging research at King’s College London, insists that mental health must be a key focus. This applies not only to older adults but also to younger people as they age. Psychological well-being matters because when someone is depressed they tend to avoid exercise, eat poorly, and neglect their finances. As a result, aging becomes a burden—and it shouldn’t be.
