Meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) expect an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season this year. In other words, activity will be significantly higher than average. The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, is the annual period when the most intense hurricanes form in the central part of the northern Atlantic Ocean. Tropical cyclones that develop in this area are classified as hurricanes, tropical storms, or tropical depressions, depending on their intensity. These storms can cause casualties and destruction. During the season, meteorological services from various countries actively monitor hurricane activity because it affects the planet’s climate.
This year, the CSU team predicts 23 named storms, 11 of which are expected to become hurricanes. Researchers anticipate that five of these hurricanes could reach the strength of a major hurricane—Category 3 or higher. It is expected that 62 percent of these storms may make landfall along the U.S. coastline. This forecast marks the highest number of hurricanes predicted by the CSU team since they began issuing April forecasts 41 years ago. Furthermore, hurricane activity this season is projected to be 170 percent of the 1991–2020 average, compared with 120 percent last year.
What the Forecast Entails
The forecast was developed using a statistical model and computer simulations of hurricanes that take into account several key indicators, including wind shear, sea surface temperature, and humidity levels. In their current calculations, meteorologists have also continued to use a metric known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which considers the frequency, intensity, and duration of storms, as reported by IFLScience. They also factored in El Niño, a large-scale climate pattern that warms the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is another reason the season is expected to be so active.
“Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions in the summer/fall, leading to a favorable wind shear pattern for hurricanes,” the meteorologists wrote in their report. “Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record-high levels and are expected to remain significantly above average during the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-usual tropical Atlantic provides a more favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment for the formation and intensification of hurricanes,” they added. However, they cautioned that much can change in both the atmosphere and the ocean before the hurricane season reaches its peak, and the forecast is only an estimate. Still, the team says it has higher-than-usual confidence in its predictions.
Preparing for Any Outcome
The CSU team says the 2024 season will likely show some of the same characteristics as other active seasons, particularly 2010 and 2020. “All of our analog seasons were very active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic,” said Phil Klotzbach, the lead author of the report. Regardless of whether the upcoming hurricane season turns out to be as active as predicted, people should prepare for any eventuality. Coastal residents should be especially ready for storms. As with every season, researchers remind people that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make the season damaging. “Thorough preparation should be carried out every season, regardless of the predicted activity,” scientists advise.
