Gaby
Global warming will drive a record number of deaths. But the risk isn’t just for the very young and the elderly.
A team from Columbia, Stanford, Boston University, and Montana State found that from 1998 to 2019 most heat-related deaths in Mexico were among 18- to 34-year-olds. That’s surprising — this age group is generally considered physiologically better able to withstand extreme heat.
The researchers focused on Mexico because it has high-quality records of heat-related deaths and some of the most severe humid-heat impacts.
The results contradict earlier studies that identified older adults as the most vulnerable. While older bodies are physiologically less able to cool down, the new analysis suggests that young people may face greater overall risk.
What Did the Scientists Report?
“This is a real surprise. We’re talking about the physiologically strongest individuals,” said Jeffrey Schrader, a researcher at Columbia University’s Climate School.
From 1998 to 2019, Mexico recorded about 3,300 heat-related deaths per year, with roughly one-third of them among 18- to 34-year-olds.
The team doesn’t know exactly why. But behavioral, social, and economic factors could make young people more likely than older adults to die from heat.
For example, younger people are more likely to spend time outdoors and to work outside during extreme heat.
The researchers calculated years of life lost from premature heat-related deaths and found people under 35 accounted for 87 percent of those lost years.
Previous studies in Mexico found that working-age men were the most likely to die from extreme heat.
What Are the Predictions Regarding the Deadly Threat of Global Warming?
Adults over 50 are generally seen as most vulnerable to heat and high humidity because their bodies struggle to cool down. The study also found that cold weather is a major threat to older people, but cold days should become less common in the future, Science Alert reports.
By 2100, deaths from cold among middle-aged and older people could fall by about one-third.
For young people the outlook is worse: under a high-emissions scenario, heat-related mortality for those under 35 could rise about 32 percent by 2100.
The researchers are now investigating whether young people elsewhere face the same heat risk.
The study was published in the journal Science Advances.
